LeadSentry Ground-Truth Validation
LeadSentry's ZIP-mode risk scores are compared against real childhood blood-lead outcomes from the NYSDOH Childhood Blood Lead Testing dataset. For each ZIP, the correlation uses the max tract score (worst tract in the ZIP) and the land-weighted mean tract score (average risk weighted by how much of the ZIP each tract covers).
Correlation with observed EBLL rate
| LeadSentry metric | Pearson r | Spearman ρ | ZIPs with data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max tract score | 0.33 | 0.32 | 26 |
| Land-weighted mean score | 0.44 | 0.55 | 26 |
- Max tract score: weak positive correlation (Pearson r = 0.33). More ZIPs or a refined model would improve this relationship.
- Land-weighted mean score: moderate positive correlation (Pearson r = 0.44). More ZIPs or a refined model would improve this relationship.
By ZIP
| ZIP | Max score | Mean score | Priority land | NYSDOH rate / 1,000 | EBLLs | Tests | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14218 | 77 | 65 | 88% | 24.0 | 6 | 246 | 2021 |
| 14221 | 76 | 43 | 5% | 0.0 | 0 | 574 | 2024 |
| 14206 | 75 | 72 | 100% | 26.0 | 8 | 303 | 2024 |
| 14210 | 75 | 67 | 86% | 33.0 | 6 | 183 | 2022 |
| 14212 | 75 | 70 | 100% | 89.0 | 27 | 303 | 2024 |
| 14220 | 75 | 69 | 92% | 27.0 | 6 | 220 | 2021 |
| 14211 | 74 | 67 | 100% | 69.0 | 40 | 580 | 2024 |
| 14208 | 73 | 68 | 81% | 58.0 | 10 | 171 | 2024 |
| 14214 | 73 | 67 | 91% | 25.0 | 6 | 241 | 2024 |
| 14215 | 73 | 69 | 96% | 23.0 | 16 | 700 | 2024 |
| 14213 | 72 | 66 | 70% | 87.0 | 6 | 69 | 2018 |
| 14201 | 71 | 65 | 75% | 0.0 | 0 | 47 | 2023 |
| 14209 | 70 | 65 | 89% | 76.0 | 6 | 79 | 2016 |
| 14216 | 70 | 66 | 99% | 42.0 | 9 | 212 | 2013 |
| 14222 | 70 | 60 | 86% | 0.0 | 0 | 82 | 2024 |
| 14227 | 70 | 58 | 32% | 0.0 | 0 | 232 | 2023 |
| 14203 | 69 | 67 | 95% | 0.0 | 0 | 24 | 2023 |
| 14207 | 69 | 65 | 100% | 28.0 | 10 | 361 | 2024 |
| 14225 | 69 | 63 | 89% | 14.0 | 6 | 441 | 2022 |
| 14224 | 68 | 49 | 12% | 0.0 | 0 | 400 | 2019 |
| 14202 | 67 | 60 | 54% | 0.0 | 0 | 16 | 2024 |
| 14204 | 67 | 57 | 29% | 57.0 | 7 | 123 | 2022 |
| 14217 | 67 | 63 | 83% | 23.0 | 6 | 260 | 2010 |
| 14226 | 67 | 60 | 41% | 43.0 | 6 | 141 | 2012 |
| 14223 | 63 | 61 | 81% | 0.0 | 0 | 250 | 2018 |
| 14228 | 56 | 35 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 307 | 2024 |
Source: NYSDOH Childhood Blood Lead Testing and Elevated Incidence by Zip Code.